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Prosus Russia Avito 6bprinsloobloomberg
Prosus Russia Avito 6bprinsloobloomberg is the leading news and analysis website of the Prosus Russia group. It provides 24/7 coverage of all the latest news and events in Russia and expert opinions on major political and economic issues. The website also offers a wealth of expert analysis on Russian politics, economics, society, culture, and more.
The Latest News and Analysis from Prosus Russia Avito
The Prosus Russia Avito blog offers the latest news and analysis from Prosus Russia. The blog covers various topics, including politics, business, finance, and technology. Recent articles have covered the Russian economy, Putin’s press conference, and the situation in Syria.
The Economic Outlook for Russia
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Russian economy is forecast to grow by 1.7% this year and by 2.5% in 2020. The IMF also projects that inflation will be 2.3% this year and 3% next year before increasing to 2.1% in 2019, which is below the Central Bank’s target of 2%. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said, “The growth momentum appears to be supported by a range of policy measures, including lower borrowing costs, accommodative monetary policy and supportive infrastructure investment.”
Russia’s recent economic performance has been helped by measures taken by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), such as an increase in interest rates from 7.5% to 17%, a reduction in liquidity provision by banks, and tighter lending criteria for new borrowers. The CBR expects rising inflationary pressures heading into 2019 but has reiterated its commitment to achieving the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2%. As a result of these changing conditions and other factors, Russia’s banking sector remains relatively healthy, with total losses falling from RUB2 trillion (USD29 billion) in end-2018 to RUB1 trillion at end-Q3 2019.
Despite these positives, some challenges facing Russia’s economy will likely persist over the medium term. These include weak demand from domestic consumers and businesses due to low economic sentiment and increasing debt levels, elevated risks stemming from geopolitical tensions, and the impact of sanctions.
The Political Situation in Russia
The Russian government is in a difficult situation. Protests have been ongoing for months and no sign of them dissipating. On the one hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has positioned himself as a strong leader, refusing to back down from his critics or make any concessions to the protesters. On the other hand, he does not have much support from the rest of the government, which is made up mainly of former members of Putin’s party who are unwilling to challenge him too openly. In addition, Putin’s popularity ratings are dipping, likely due to the economic downturn that Russia is experiencing. It means he may be less willing than ever to give in to protesters’ demands.
The Stock Market Outlook for Russia
The stock market outlook for Russia is optimistic, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 1.5% this month. The ruble rose to a 3-month high against the dollar earlier this month and has remained steady since then. Russian companies are doing well, with Bisnode Ratings reporting that the top five performers in the Russian stock market in 2018 are Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank, Rosneft, and VTB Capital. There are also expectations that economic growth will continue to accelerate in 2019 and 2020. Despite these positives, some risks, such as political uncertainty and sanctions, are still associated with investing in Russia.
What to Watch for in Russia this Week
The Russian stock market is set to open on Monday with a rebound from its recent losses, but investors should be wary of potential political risks.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment against 13 Russian nationals for meddling in the 2016 presidential election, alleging a conspiracy to boost Donald Trump’s chances of winning. The Kremlin has denied any involvement and dismissed the charges as politically motivated.
“This could spook markets and push Russia-related stocks lower,” said Anna Mikulska, an analyst at Polityka Insight in Warsaw. “But we also have to remember that this [indictment] was announced just a few days ago so there’s still time for developments.”
Markets will continue to watch developments in Syria and Ukraine, where skirmishes are ongoing between government forces and separatists over control of strategic territory. If fighting escalates, it could lead to market volatility as investors weigh the probability of further military engagements and their possible impact on economic growth.
“There are lots of uncertainties surrounding Russia at the moment,” said Nicolas Spiro, head of the global macro strategy at Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London. “However, given how stretched markets have been recently, even a small signal that things might start to improve could cause them to jump.”
Investors should also keep an eye out for inflation data due Thursday morning in Moscow and Consumer Price Index figures due out later in the week in Saint Petersburg. Inflation pressures will likely increase if the global economy weakens, and both indices could show significant increases if this happens.
Here’s a look at some other events to watch for in Russia this week:
On Tuesday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is scheduled to meet with his counterparts from Germany, France, and Italy in Berlin to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to give a speech on “The Role of the State in the Contemporary World” at Moscow’s Kremlin.
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